Overview
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Big Island of Hawaii as Tropical Storm Lala closes in from the east-southeast, and the storm is forecast to strike as a hurricane. If it does, it would be the first hurricane landfall in Hawaii since Hurricane Iniki devastated Kauai in September 1992, and the first hurricane landfall on the Big Island in the modern record.
As of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's late Thursday advisory, Lala carried maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and was centered about 455 miles east-southeast of Hilo, moving west-northwest at 10 mph. The storm is large, with tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 275 miles from the center, and steady strengthening is forecast as it approaches.
Hurricane conditions are expected on the Big Island by early Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Watch covers Maui County, including Maui, Lanai, Molokai, and Kahoolawe, where tropical storm conditions are possible by late Saturday. Gov. Green has issued an emergency proclamation, shelters are opening, and interisland flights and schools are already being disrupted.
Rain, not just wind, is the defining hazard
CPHC forecasts 8 to 12 inches of rain across the Big Island and Maui, with isolated maximum totals of 25 inches on the Big Island, and 4 to 6 inches with local 8-inch amounts across the rest of the island chain. Forecasters warn of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain, and note that winds atop and along the windward slopes can run 30% or more stronger than the advisory values.
Storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is expected along Big Island shores, accompanied by large, dangerous waves, with swells building along east-facing shores beginning Friday. The rainfall risk carries echoes of Hurricane Lane in 2018, which never made landfall yet dropped more than 50 inches of rain on the Big Island, one of the wettest tropical cyclone events in US history.
"Hawaii's topography turns tropical cyclones into multi-peril events in a way few places on Earth can match," said Cotality Chief Scientist Howard Botts. "The mountains wring extraordinary rainfall totals out of these storms and accelerate winds on exposed slopes, so even if Lala's center never crosses the coastline, the flood and mudslide losses can rival the wind damage. Iniki taught the market that lesson in 1992, and Lane repeated it in 2018 without ever making landfall."
What this means for insurers
Hawaii's insurance market carries a structural signature left by Iniki, which drove insurers from the state and led to the creation of the Hawaii Hurricane Relief Fund. Today, hurricane wind coverage is typically a separate policy or endorsement from standard homeowners insurance, flood is covered separately through the NFIP and private flood policies, and take-up patterns vary widely across the islands.
That fragmentation means a Lala landfall would test coverage boundaries: wind claims on hurricane policies, flood and mudslide losses falling to flood policies or going uninsured, and business interruption across the tourism economy. Exposure on the Big Island is concentrated in Hilo and Kailua-Kona, with older single-wall construction in East Hawaii particularly vulnerable to wind.
Cotality projects losses ranging from $1.0 billion to $1.5 billion for this event. That range carries meaningful uncertainty: Lala is shaping up as a multi-peril event in which rainfall-driven flood losses could rival wind losses, and it remains uncertain whether, and where, the storm will make landfall.
Cotality will continue monitoring this event and may provide updates when available.
