Press Release
10 things to know about the property market: June 2026
IRVINE, Calif., June 25, 2026 — Cotality, a leading property information, analytics, and data-driven solutions provider, has released its latest market update.
Underneath the national baseline, local real estate markets are telling conflicting stories. While the national price trend suggests a slow-moving market, strong gains are defining the Northeast and the Midwest while Florida, New York, and Washington D.C. metros face declines. A shifting investor footprint, slow rent growth, increased ADU permitting, and elevated construction costs are further influencing regional differences.
Pockets of opportunity lie beyond the flat averages. Here are the 10 most critical data trends shaping the property market today:
Housing Market Trends
- National home prices are flattening
National home prices rose just 0.3% year over year, showing a cooling market. Spring momentum was unusually soft, with prices increasing only 1% between January and April 2026, compared to a typical 2% pre-pandemic gain and a 3% average over the last five years.
- Local markets are split
While national figures are moving slowly, local price growth varies wildly. San Francisco led spring gains with an 8.1% price increase from January to April, followed by Newark, New Jersey at 6.4%, Boston, Massachusetts at 5.9%, and Rochester, New York at 4.3%. Conversely, spring price declines were led by Cape Coral, Florida at 4.7%, the New York metro area at 2.3%, Buffalo, New York at 2.1%, and Washington, D.C. at 1.3%.
- Outdated tax thresholds are locking inventory in place
Home price appreciation is pushing sellers above capital gains tax exclusion thresholds, which have remained stagnant at $250,000 for single filers and $500,000 for married couples since the late 1990s. Cotality's analysis shows that one in 12 sellers now exceed these limits, particularly in high-cost markets like California. This added tax burden discourages moves, locking existing inventory in place.
- Single-family rent growth is stabilizing
Rent growth has entered a stable, slow-moving phase, with annual gains easing to 1.4% in April 2026, down from 2.8% a year earlier. Rents have hovered between 1% and 1.5% since late 2025, though trends remain uneven between price tiers and regions. Rent growth for higher-priced homes continues to outpace lower-priced properties, and Midwest and Northeast metros are leading gains while Sun Belt markets remain flat or declining.
- Tariffs and geopolitical pressures continue to drive construction costs up
In May, construction material costs rose 4.2% year over year, while home repair service costs jumped 7.4%. Inflation pressures have driven total reconstruction costs up 54% since 2018, which is nearly double the 34% rise in overall inflation. Ongoing tariffs led to the fastest-rising inputs, which include copper pipes, up 5.8%, and aluminum conduits, up 5%.
- Permits for ADUs surpass conventional homes in California
For the first time ever, Accessory Dwelling Unit (ADU) permits outpaced permits for conventional homes in major California metros. In the Los Angeles metro area, Q1 ADU permits rose 8% year over year to 5,100, while conventional housing permits sat at 5,000. In San Francisco, ADU permits jumped by 23% to 820 in Q1, while conventional starts dropped 36% to 750.
- California dominates the national ADU market
California accounted for over two-thirds of the 13,000 ADU permits issued nationwide in Q1 2026, despite making up less than 10% of conventional housing starts. California's Q1 ADU permits are 15 times higher in 2026 than in 2016, while ADU starts only doubled in the rest of the country over the same decade.
Mortgage and Investor Trends
- Mega-investors step back as policy changes loom
Following proposed policy restrictions on January 7, 2026, large-scale mega-investors proactively cut their daily home acquisitions from 250 to 100. However, small-scale buyers are stepping into their shoes, increasing their market share by nearly the same amount. This has kept overall investor activity high and held home prices steady.
- Small-scale landlords squeezing out first-time buyers
Small investors holding under 10 properties bought 20% more homes than they sold last year, while individual non-investors sold 6% more than they bought. Because 40% of these small-scale landlords hold properties for a decade or more, rising ownership costs are passed directly to tenants. Rents have jumped 30% over the last five years and now consume 39% of renter budgets.
- Refinance opportunities remain sparse
Only a small fraction of homeowners are positioned to refinance, since most borrowers remain locked into low pandemic-era rates. As of April 2026, just 3.7% of outstanding loans carry interest rates above 7%, and only 10.5% exceed 6.5%. Refinance opportunities are concentrated among post-2022 buyers who carry much higher rates and may be interested in options if rates move even modestly lower.
Tracking ADU permitting
Data source: Cotality, 2026
About Cotality
Cotality accelerates data, insights, and workflows across the property ecosystem to enable industry professionals to surpass their ambitions and impact society. With billions of real-time data signals across the life cycle of a property, we unearth hidden risks and transformative opportunities for agents, lenders, carriers, and innovators. Get to know us at www.cotality.com.
Media Contact
Charity Head
Cotality
