OVERVIEW
- By 2030, most homes in the U.S. will see a few more heat-wave days per year.
- By 2050, more than half of all homes will face two or more weeks of additional heat-wave days annually.
- By 2050, three percent of homes will experience an entire additional month or more of scorching heat each year.
Summertime has taken on a new meaning. Across the U.S., summer’s appeal is giving way to something harsher: heat waves.
Headlines about record-breaking temperatures are becoming more common, though not always where you might expect. Triple-digit readings have long been part of summer in much of the American Southwest, but Cotality found that places better known for severe winter weather are also facing dangerous increases in heat.
These projected increases threaten the health of millions of Americans and carry a growing financial cost. In some areas, Cotality expects average annual losses from heat waves to rise by as much as 700%.
The Midwest isn’t made for this
Nearly every American home will face more days of extreme heat by 2030, but the largest jumps in hot days will begin in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota, where communities will see a 7-percentile-point increase in their risk of exposure. That risk will continue to climb until 2050 when over half of all U.S. homes will face at least two additional weeks of consecutive days over 95 degrees. By mid-century, New York, Pennsylvania, and California will be facing the steepest increases in warmer weather.
These states are also seeing people migrate to their cooler climes. Michigan saw its population grow every year for the last four years, according to the Census Bureau data. Each year, a double-digit percentage of movers came from out of state. Minnesota is also pulling in people from elsewhere. Seventeen percent of movers came from out of state in 2024 and now represent 2% of the state’s total population. New York and California are seeing similar percentages of newcomers from out of state, but the states’ large populations mean that tens of thousands of people are making their homes in areas where temperatures may soon be less than welcoming.
Increase in heatwave risk 2030 - 2050
Data source: Cotality, 2026
Even then, these states will not become the hottest in the nation. That distinction will remain with Texas, Arizona, and Florida.
Florida and Texas are in the hot(-test) seat
Florida and Texas sit at the center of heat risk in the U.S. Already, dozens of cities in those states have a heat-wave risk score of 97 out of 100. By 2050, eight additional cities in those states will join that top tier.
How heatwave risk will evolve (2026-2050)
Data source: Cotality, 2026
Florida currently leads the nation for heatwave risk, but the scorching landscapes of the American Southwest are forecast to grow even more extreme by 2050.
By then, each of Texas’ 254 counties will experience at least 20 additional heatwave days. Over half will see more than 25 days with temperatures above 95 degrees.
Several of the state’s most populus urban centers are also blazing towards a future where hot days mean more than just sunburn. Harris County, where Houston dominates, is facing a 65% increase in average annual losses reported from heatwaves, Cotality found.
Counties with the largest average annual losses from heatwaves
Data source: Cotality, 2026
That forecast quickly turns into financial strain . Florida’s Miami-Dade County is on the brink of a 694% increase in average annual losses from heatwaves, Cotality found. Over the next 30 years, the county’s economic losses attributable to heatwaves are expected to climb from $19 million to $135 million,driven largely by at-risk infrastructure, water systems, and energy demand.
On the brink
Florida’s infrastructure is already struggling to keep pace with demand.
Drinking water is under particular pressure. Of course, water infrastructure is crucial for any city, but for many places in Florida, demand far outpaces the available funds needed to update infrastructure. While regulators are allocating funding to mitigate immediate issues, it's a costly undertaking. Homeowners largely foot the bill through property tax, which has increased 73% between 2019 and 2024, and is putting additional pressure on Floridians’ monthly budgets already strained by inflation.
As extreme heat pushes utility costs higher, it will add further pressure to affordability, which is at its lowest point in decades, according to Cotality data.
Energy demand is also forecast to accelerate as heat exposure rises. In states like Texas, where hotter periods will last longer, that could push power grids to the edge.
“I struggle to find adjectives to express how just wild these levels of demand are, particularly not just to see it once, but day after day after day, Doug Lewin with Stoic Energy told Marketplace.
In 2023, the Lone Star State saw energy consumption rise to three times the level used in Florida, even as national consumption declined. Residential use was the third-highest category of consumption, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. This reality has the potential to overload and reshape allocations.
Triple-digit temperatures can do more than just stress electrical grids and strain water infrastructure. They can harm public health. Arizona is already experiencing these effects. The state has seen a roughly tenfold increase in heat-related fatalities over the past 20 years, and about 63% of these instances occurred in Maricopa County, where Phoenix is located. These risks will be amplified as temperatures stay hotter for longer. Cotality forecasts the heat stress from days above 110 degrees Fahrenheit in this county to increase 39% by 2050.
Tracking the percentage of counties per state with heatwave day increases by 2050
Data source: Cotality, 2026
“If temperatures increase too drastically, it will dull the attraction of sunshine and low taxes that brought people to Arizona in the first place,” said Cotality Chief Scientist Dr. Howard Botts. “But adaptation is possible. With forward looking models and an understanding of how hot is too hot for certain construction choices or locations, we can create resilient communities across the American Southwest.”
The high cost of rising temperatures
Heat risk is mounting across the country. The largest spikes, though, will hit parts of the U.S. that are least prepared for these conditions, leaving millions of Americans dealing with strained electrical grids, public health pressures, and growing economic losses tied to heat.
Some will move in search of milder climates. Others will stay and adapt. In either case, resilience will become a decisive measure of future stability. Using property data to get a sneak peek into what’s coming next will be key to determining if at-risk states can adapt before they get left behind.
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