Hurricanes are becoming more intense and less predictable, placing increasing strain on homeowners, insurers, and real estate markets along the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coasts. Get answers to questions like “when is hurricane season 2025” and explore the rising cost of hurricane risk, fueled by warming oceans and shifting climate patterns, and how insurers must evolve to stay ahead of a volatile future.
- Even a "normal" 2025 hurricane season could bring billion-dollar disasters.
- ENSO shifts and sea surface temperatures work together, and their 2025 pattern may help fuel rapid hurricane intensification.
- Homeowners in areas with extreme risk today will see property insurance premiums rise even further in the next five years.
Every June the Atlantic hurricane season begins. Homeowners, insurers, and governments brace for the storms that blow across the Gulf Coast and up the Atlantic seaboard. But these storms are getting worse, which is pushing the insurance industry to its limits and causing volatility in the property market.
Billions of dollars of real estate weather storms each year, and to shield these investments, premiums have soared. So too have payouts. Since the beginning of the decade, 18 storms caused over $1 billion in damages. The high cost of hurricane season not only makes it more expensive to live in at-risk areas, but it is eroding the wealth that homeowners can build through property. A Cotality study found that homes sitting within Miami’s 100-year flood zone saw a reduction in values of between 9% and 18% per square foot.
Bigger storms bring more flooding and wind damage, making high-loss years more common. This year, current meteorological phenomena have the potential to fuel an intense 2025 hurricane season.
Hurricanes are heating up
Ocean sea surface temperatures power hurricanes. Already this year, the Atlantic Ocean is posting warmer than average readings. Warm seas in the Caribbean — which hit records in February according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) — dial up storm intensity, providing the fuel for what meteorologists call "rapid intensification."
This pattern is becoming familiar. From 2022 to 2024, above-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures pushed storms like Hurricane Ian, Hurricane Milton, and Hurricane Helene to catastrophic strength in mere hours.
Knowing the number of catastrophic hurricanes before the season begins is a guessing game, but looking at global environmental patterns can give a clue. The number of powerful hurricanes this year will depend on things like ocean temperatures in the Atlantic and the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) phase - which can take the form of El Niño, where hurricane formation is difficult, La Niña, where hurricane formation is easy, or neutral, where hurricane formation is in between.
This year, NOAA models suggest a neutral phase, but there is a small chance of a transition to La Niña in the fall. If that transition occurs, the season could intensify.
However, if ENSO remains neutral, ocean temperatures will take the lead, and record-setting spring Atlantic Ocean temperatures indicate a potential stormy season ahead.
Even if the total number of named storms in the 2025 hurricane season ends up near average, the presence of deep ocean heat could mean more destructive storms. Just one Category 4 hurricane making landfall is enough to upend thousands of lives and cost billions in damages. If the season brings multiple storms, the strained insurance industry may start to buckle. Already, the industry is shrinking its coverage in states like Florida.
“With catastrophe costs at historically high levels and reconstruction costs continuing to climb, we implemented a pause on writing new homeowners policies to more effectively manage our risk exposure,” Farmers said in a statement, as reported by The Miami Herald.
The rising intensity of hurricanes is slowly shifting property risk profiles along U.S. coastlines. As risk increases, so too will damage costs. Cotality data found that homeowners in extremely risky areas — who generally already have high premiums — will see them increase further over the next five years.
Rising heat, rising risk
As forecasts shift for millions living along the hurricane-prone U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coasts, tracking these trends will be essential for those with an interest in the future of coastal living. Insurers need to look at the numbers to prepare themselves to make critical decisions to support homeowners and communities.
In the upcoming 2025 Hurricane Risk Report, Cotality brings together its experts to examine exposure across the U.S. and explore the unexpected areas facing a future with increased hurricane risk. With deep analysis of data, we model what these signals mean for the people living in risk-prone zones to help make sense of what the future holds and chart a course through it.
