2026 Hurricane Risk Report

David and Elena, a fictional couple, spent years enjoying their retirement in a peaceful coastal Florida neighborhood. What they didn’t know is that they owned a home in an X-zone. After experiencing back-to-back close calls in previous North Atlantic hurricane seasons, they invested in impact-resistant windows and felt secure knowing they lived just outside a traditional legacy high-risk flood zone.

Life in an X-Zone, which the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) defines as moderate-to-low risk areas located outside the 100-year floodplain, can change with a mere 12-inch difference in the height of the first story. David and Elena saw that firsthand.

When a Category 4 hurricane made landfall, the storm surge — an abnormal rise in coastal waters driven by the storm— pushed far inland. Most of the neighborhood experienced minimal water intrusion. David and Elena suffered catastrophic damage to their property and a $150,000 bill to restore their home.

Traditional 30-meter resolution floodplain maps, which rely on broad averages, historical records, and traditional in-or-out flood zones, didn’t mark their home as risky. But hurricanes don’t follow generalizations.  

Understanding hurricane risk and preparing a resilient defense requires a unified and high-definition approach to understanding wind, storm surge, and rainfall down to the single-meter level.

Comprehensively manage trillions in property exposure

Nationally, the vast economic value of properties at risk from hurricanes is staggering. Over $12.26 trillion in reconstruction cost value (RCV) is at moderate or greater risk from hurricane winds, alone. This risk threatens over 32.2 million homes across all 20 tracked states, including Washington D.C. While storm surge is restricted to immediate coastal and low-lying areas, it still threatens over 6 million homes nationwide, accounting for $2.1 trillion in risk.

Number of homes and associated RCV with moderate or greater risk to hurricane wind damage by state

Source: Cotality, 2026

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Number of homes and associated RCV with moderate or greater risk to storm surge damage by state

Source: Cotality, 2026

Florida is the undisputed epicenter of hurricane risk, leading the nation with approximately 8.25 million homes at risk of wind damage and 2.47 million homes at risk of storm surge. This storm surge risk in Florida represents $747.6 billion in RCV, which is over three times higher than the second most at-risk state of Louisiana. Texas ranks second for hurricane wind risk with 4.76 million homes, followed closely by North Carolina.

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Number of homes and associated RCV with moderate or greater risk to hurricane wind damage by metropolitan area

Source: Cotality, 2026

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Number of homes and associated RCV with moderate or greater risk to storm surge damage by metropolitan area

Source: Cotality, 2026

The New York metropolitan area ranks number one for the total number of homes at risk for both storm surge and hurricane wind. This northeastern region contains 631,619 homes at risk of storm surge, which represents $329 billion in RCV. Furthermore, the area has an astounding 3.27 million homes exposed to hurricane wind, accounting for $1.93 trillion in RCV.

While the frequency of hurricanes is lower in the northeast than in the southeast, the immense population density and coastal real estate value translate to massive potential losses. The exposure to hurricane wind and storm surge extends far beyond typical coastal enclaves. Comprehensive risk evaluation across millions of properties is a necessary step to protect vulnerable communities from devastating financial impacts.

Traditional binary flood zones don’t show the full picture

The traditional binary approach to defining flood zones doesn’t tell the whole story. Relying solely on whether a property sits in or out of a 100-year floodplain leaves significant amounts of property heavily exposed. Cotality data reveals that there is over $405.5 billion worth of residential property sitting in areas where flood insurance is not mandatory, yet our data shows these homes are actually at high risk for hurricane-driven flooding. This means the owners of over 927,000 individual properties don’t have the full picture of their risk.

The expected annual loss for these properties is roughly $1.73 billion. Storm surge accounts for approximately 63% of this loss, while rainfall-induced flooding drives the remaining 37%. The average loss cost across all these exposed properties is roughly $4.30 for every $1,000 of  RCV, indicating that the risk in these zones is deeply concentrated.

Which counties are the most exposed?

1. Orleans Parish, Louisiana: $41.8 billion in exposed property value
2. Jefferson Parish, Louisiana: $28.6 billion in exposed property value
3. Brevard County, Florida: $18.2 billion in exposed property value
4. Harris County, Texas: $13.3 billion in exposed property value
5. Suffolk County, New York: $10.6 billion in exposed property value

Advanced property datasets that identify hidden risks are crucial to closing insurance gaps. These modern models succeed by measuring specific structural vulnerabilities down to the single-meter level, directly analyzing details like first-floor height, lowest adjacent grade, and localized topography. By incorporating precise elevation data, analysts can determine exactly when a home sits dangerously below the base flood elevation, proving that the property remains highly vulnerable to storm surge and pluvial flooding even if it is mapped outside a traditional high-risk zone. Accurate insights allow stakeholders to view precise hazard footprints rather than relying on outdated map boundaries, ultimately preventing homeowners from facing sudden economic ruin.

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Rising inland pluvial flooding proves first-floor elevation data is essential

Hurricanes are traditionally viewed as coastal wind and surge events, but rainfall-induced flooding is increasingly devastating communities hundreds of miles inland. This underscores why analyzing structural elevation is more important than ever for comprehensive mitigation efforts.

A critical factor in assessing this vulnerability is examining the elevation of a home relative to base flood elevation. Only 38.2% of homes in coastal flood zones are elevated above the 100-year base flood elevation. This means a staggering 61.8% of coastal residences sit below this critical safety line, highlighting massive structural vulnerability right on the coast.

$405.5 billion

worth of residential property sitting in areas where flood insurance is not mandatory.

Inland properties fare slightly better, likely due to different building codes and local topography. However, out of the structures in high-risk inland flood zones, 39.6% still sit below the base flood elevation. This translates to nearly 1.69 million homes in known high-risk inland areas that remain physically vulnerable to floodwaters breaching their first floor.

"When homeowners underestimate risk, they're less likely to invest in resilience," said Cotality Chief Scientist Howard Botts. "That's a serious problem in places where codes haven't caught up to environmental realities.”

Recognizing the growing threat of inland rainfall requires deploying high-fidelity elevation data. Proper risk assessment ensures that both coastal and inland communities can adequately prepare for rising waters by elevating structures appropriately.

Delayed post-storm mitigation exponentially escalates financial losses

When a hurricane hits, the time it takes for mitigation to begin determines the final price tag for restoration. Delays mean that secondary damage can inflate a localized repair into a total loss.

Waiting just seven days to initiate mitigation efforts guarantees the total cost will increase by at least 53%, and it could potentially more than double. If mitigation services are delayed by 21 days, the net cost can jump by 155% to 290%.

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Estimated impact of delayed mitigation services following a named storm

Source: Estimates based on Cotality field expertise

The cost of cleaning up and repairing damage drives the biggest price hikes. By day 21, remediation costs alone increase by 100% to 200% due to secondary issues like mold growth and structural rot. Additional living expenses (ALE) also grow steadily as the property becomes uninhabitable for longer periods. Furthermore, demand inflation for contractors adds an additional 20% to 30% premium by the end of three weeks.

The exponential growth of remediation costs emphasizes the need for rapid assessment solutions. Implementing technologies that can quickly dispatch mitigation services will halt structural degradation and preserve critical financial resources.

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Tropical cyclones are a global problem

Hurricanes are not just a concern in the U.S.

While this report focuses specifically on the Atlantic Hurricane season, the Western Pacific Basin is one of the most active in the world, producing an average of 28 tropical storms annually. These storms challenge international recovery ecosystems and highlight the sheer scale of combined wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts in densely populated Asian markets. Events like Super Typhoon Haiyan in 2013, which caused over $5 billion in damage, illustrate the severity of these natural disasters.

The combination of economic growth and underlying typhoon risk has elevated the risk profile for these nations. Individual typhoon events have the potential to affect multiple countries, requiring a consistent risk assessment approach across Japan, South Korea, China, Taiwan, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia.

Accurate risk evaluation demands a detailed model that considers the direct action of extreme winds upon structures alongside damage due to storm surge and rainfall-induced flooding. Advanced financial modeling aids in regulatory compliance and supports a variety of insurance and reinsurance contracts. Utilizing comprehensive models is essential for managing regional hazard variations. Implementing broad geographic evaluations ensures that international markets can maintain resilience in the face of intense cyclone activity.

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Mitigation fortifies resilience efforts

While advanced modeling and broad geographic evaluations are essential for understanding risk, individual homeowners must also take proactive steps to fortify their properties against extreme weather.

One of the most effective strategies for preventing catastrophic water intrusion is elevating the primary structure so that the first-floor height sits above the 100-year base flood elevation. For wind protection, investing in impact-resistant windows and adhering to updated building codes can significantly reduce the chances of a building envelope breach during a severe storm.

Furthermore, consumers can minimize secondary financial losses by preparing for rapid post-storm response. Having a plan in place to immediately initiate emergency mitigation services such as roof tarping and water extraction within the first day of a storm can rapidly halt structural degradation.

Taking these immediate actions prevents localized damage from escalating into costly secondary issues like mold growth and structural rot. By combining these physical structural improvements with swift emergency action, homeowners can actively safeguard their property equity and increase their personal resilience against increasingly volatile hurricanes.

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Navigating the depth of risk

As property markets navigate the growing complexities of natural disaster risk, the financial and social costs of inaction continue to rise. The data clearly shows that relying on legacy assumptions leaves homeowners, insurers, and local governments vulnerable to catastrophic losses.

The true depth of risk extends far beyond traditional coastal boundaries, reaching into hidden vulnerabilities within seemingly safe inland zones and escalating into deep financial tolls when mitigation is delayed. The increasing volatility of hurricanes requires granular insights that capture the exact first-floor height, precise flooding patterns, and rapid mitigation timelines to fully grasp this exposure.

For fictional homeowners like David and Elena, these hidden vulnerabilities are not just abstract data points, but life-altering financial realities. The transition toward resilience depends on embracing high-definition analytical models that reveal the complete depth of risk in both domestic and international markets. By utilizing sophisticated risk evaluation technology to look beyond surface-level map boundaries, communities can safeguard home equity, stabilize property values, and protect the financial future of generations to come.