Home price growth softens amid a new year chill

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index, formerly known as the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, is a leading measure of U.S. residential real estate prices.

IRVINE, Calif., March 31, 2026 — The national housing market opened 2026 with modest activity. Despite the slower pace, home prices across the country remain higher than they were one year ago. Annual growth slowed to just 0.9% in January, a step back from the pace seen in December (Figure 1), according to the S&P Cotality Case‑Shiller Index.

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Annual home price growth slows in January

Data source: S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices, not seasonally adjusted (March 31, 2026)

“We are in a period of low sales and price growth that mirrors the disconnect between incomes and home prices seen during 20^th century recessions,” said Thom Malone, Principal Economist at Cotality. “This time, however, the dynamics are reversed: rather than an economic collapse, a housing surge is waiting for the rest of the economy to catch up. While the 2026 spring homebuying season may spark some momentum, the most likely outcome is modest price growth as buyers and sellers remain at a standoff.”

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Monthly price declines outpace seasonal norms

Data source: S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices, not seasonally adjusted (March 31, 2026)

This January, home prices felt a sharper chill than usual. The national index dropped 0.11% for the month, significantly outpacing the typical 0.03% seasonal dip seen in previous years. With buyers staying on the sidelines longer than in recent winters, values have slid down slightly; however, the market is largely holding its ground.

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Big cities show mixed results in annual gains

Data source: S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices, not seasonally adjusted (March 31, 2026)

The 10-city and 20-city indices also cooled, though they continue to outpace the national average with gains of 1.7% and 1.2% respectively. Regional performance continues to split the country: New York and Chicago remain the growth leaders, with annual gains of 4.9% and 4.6%, respectively. While previously hot markets in the Sunbelt see values retreat amid rising inventory. Tampa and Denver recorded the sharpest annual declines, both fell by more than 2%.

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Miami and Charlotte lead regional growth despite monthly slide

Data source: S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices, not seasonally adjusted (March 31, 2026)

Despite the monthly downturn, A handful of cities continued to show price growth. Miami led the way with a 0.4% monthly increase, while Charlotte and Washington D.C., posted slight upticks. Demand in these hubs remains resilient even as the broader national momentum pauses. Meanwhile, cities like Seattle and Atlanta saw monthly prices slide by 0.5% or more.

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High-end homes feel the most pressure

Data source: S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices, not seasonally adjusted (March 31, 2026)

Market tiers are telling a tale of two price points. Lower-priced homes remained the most stable, with values dipping just 0.05% on average across major cities. In contrast, the luxury market faced more pressure, as high-tier home prices fell by 0.25% in January.

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A buyer-seller standoff defined the 2025 housing market. Sellers held onto their equity while record-high unaffordability left buyers unable to meet price expectations. This led to slower sales, rising inventory, and flat pricing—a trend expected to continue into early 2026. The spring season will be the turning point: if frustrated sellers become more willing to cut prices and lower expectations, values could dip. Conversely, if buyers return with improved financing, prices may rise.

Ultimately, the most likely result is a middle ground: a steady market thaw accompanied by modest price growth.