Climate risk is reshaping home affordability

Homeownership has long gone hand in hand with stability. But that relationship is shifting. Insurance premiums are rising. Property taxes are climbing. In some parts of the country, escrow payments, which are made up of property taxes and homeowners insurance, now exceed the cost of principal and interest.

Much of this cost increase is due to environmental risk. Although it's not always visible on a closing contract, variations in property risk profiles are redefining the market. Choice is increasingly driven by exposure.  

Proximity to wildfires, floods, and hurricanes is pushing buyers to reconsider not just what they can afford — but where. And this divide is growing, according to Cotality data*. Concerns about safety and stability are reshuffling housing markets, and in the long-term, geography will define affordability.

Hundreds of counties across the U.S. are sheltered from severe natural catastrophe risk. But sheltered does not mean immune. So, when homes in these areas aren’t built for the unexpected, the consequences can be catastrophic.

“Low risk does not mean no risk,” explains Cotality’s Chief Data and Analytics Officer John Rogers. “We need to make sure that people understand what a risk score means since it’s only valuable if it can be translated into future resilience. That means tilting the conversation on physical property risk toward cooperation between homeowners, policymakers, and developers for long-term living solutions.”

Zoning laws, building codes, and home construction influence the resilience of properties and can tip a county from simply sheltered to future resilience. The opposite is also true. Without careful consideration for the resilience of individual homes, already vulnerable communities can slide into a very risky future.

Where is it safe to live in the U.S.?  

Safest large counties (50K+ Homes)

These five counties benefit from low exposure to natural perils as well as a high number of homes that are built with low-risk profiles. They’re not immune—but they’re better positioned to weather the storm.

Data source: Cotality, 2025

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Why it matters:

These counties have the advantage of a combination of elevation, inland location, and moderate weather patterns. That means fewer insurance claims, more stable premiums, and less disruption from natural disasters. In places like Skagit and Whatcom, wildfire risk is low, and flood exposure is limited. In El Paso, hurricane risk is virtually nonexistent. Still, low risk does not mean no risk. Homes across counties face varying degrees of exposure, which is why it is crucial to understand the individual risk profiles of every property.

Safest counties overall (all sizes)

Smaller counties are also showing strong climate resilience—especially in parts of Colorado and Georgia.

Data source: Cotality, 2025

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Why it matters:

These counties are far from coastlines, sit at higher relative elevations, are surrounded by attenuating open land, or have historically low exposure to extreme weather. That translates to fewer disruptions from weather events and more predictable housing costs. In Summit County, for example, snow is common—but wildfire, flood, and storm risk remain low.

Where is it risky to live in the U.S.?

Riskiest large counties (50K+ Homes)

In these counties, environmental risk is already reshaping the housing market. Insurance costs are rising, and rebuilding after disasters is becoming both a financial and a logistical challenge.

Data source: Cotality, 2025

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Why it matters:

These counties face the triple threat of hurricane storm surge, flooding, and wind damage. In New Orleans and Galveston, storm surge and sea-level rise are persistent threats. In Biloxi and Pascagoula, repeated hurricane landfalls have made insurance harder to access and more expensive to maintain.

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Riskiest counties overall (all sizes)

Smaller coastal counties are also under pressure. Many residents are losing homes, insurance coverage, and land—literally.

Data source: Cotality, 2025

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Why it matters:

These counties are on the front lines, seeing the consequences of a changing environment. In the Louisiana counties of Plaquemines and Cameron, land loss from erosion and sea-level rise is accelerating. In Hancock, Mississippi and Lafourche, Louisiana, repeated storm damage has made rebuilding more expensive and less sustainable. These risks are already pricing out many homeowners.

Natural disaster risk is a housing cost

The old adage that real estate is all about location has never been more true. In high-risk counties, insurance premiums can double or triple in just a few years. That adds hundreds of dollars to monthly payments and can tip the balance for buyers who are already stretched.  

But where someone buys property is no longer about just building wealth. The choice is now defining long-term safety, stability, and affordability.