September data shows home prices have fallen for most of 2025

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index, formerly known as the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, is a leading measure of U.S. residential real estate prices.

IRVINE, Calif., November 25, 2025 — The arrival of fall brought pumpkin-spice lattes, brisk weather, and cooler home prices. Annual growth slowed according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index, dropping to 1.3% in September (Figure 1). The 10-city and 20-city composite indexes stayed slightly stronger but also dropped to 2% and 1.4%, respectively.

The non-seasonally adjusted index fell by 0.3% monthly (Figure 2), a decline very similar to the one recorded in August. September monthly appreciation remained below its historical average of a 0.1%, a trend that has been consistent since April. Given that price movements from October through December are usually minor, annual growth at the end of 2025 will likely be between 1% and 2%, easily the lowest since 2011.

“The housing market has gone into hibernation. Buyers and sellers are at an impasse — sellers want to preserve their equity gains from the last five years while buyers are unwilling to meet those price expectations,” said Cotality Principal Economist Thom Malone. “The trend is widespread, with prices declining across all the metros in the 20-City Index in September. Even the Midwest, which had shown some resilience due to its relative affordability, has started to see declines.”

September annual growth slides for eighth straight month

Data source: S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices, not seasonally adjusted (November 24, 2025)

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Monthly declines remain below historical averages

Data source: S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices, not seasonally adjusted (November 24, 2025)

In September, only five metros in the 20-City Index saw year-over-year price growth accelerate compared to the previous month (Figure 3). Chicago, New York, and Boston led with annual increases of 5.5%, 5.2%, and 4.1%, respectively. Meanwhile, 11 metros posted annual declines. These price declines indicate a stalled market, not an imminent steep crash. Thirteen metros fall within a 2% to -2% corridor for annual appreciation. Although there is currently strong annual appreciation in the Northeast and Midwest, these areas are likely just experiencing the same price cycle with different timing. If monthly appreciation for metros in these regions stays muted, prices will flatten out in the first half of 2026.

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September annual price growth accelerated in five metros compared to August

Data source: S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices, not seasonally adjusted (November 24, 2025)

On a monthly basis, prices declined in every tracked metro, which is not typical in September. Tampa saw the largest decline at -1.0% (Figure 4), suggesting it may have some time to go before it bottoms out. Chicago saw a monthly decline in September, marking an end to Midwest’s resilient run of monthly gains in 2025.

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Prices fell across the country in September

Data source: S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices, not seasonally adjusted (November 24, 2025)

Price declines were the same at all price points, with average monthly drops of -0.6% for low-priced homes, -0.6% for mid-priced homes, and -0.6% for high-priced homes (Figure 5). Despite minor price bumps in parts of the San Francisco market — largely attributed to low transaction volume — no segment is currently showing signs of sustained, strong price growth.

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All price tiers saw equal declines in September

Data source: S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices, not seasonally adjusted (November 24, 2025)

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September’s monthly decline suggests sellers are preserving equity and only accepting lower prices when forced. Still, inventory levels and days on the market continued to rise in September since many sellers have enough home equity to wait out current market conditions for more favorable prices.