Although trends in the American housing market are cyclical there is one constant: a search for affordability. At the beginning of the millennium, affordability came in the form of suburban sprawl. During the pandemic, remote work transformed affordability to look like Sunbelt markets far from traditional job centers. Now, it’s increasingly looking like staying in place.
A combination of economic uncertainty, tighter lending criteria, and a persistent gap between buyer and seller expectations is stagnating the market. Since the height of interstate migration in 2022, Cotality found that loan applications for out-of-state moves dropped 2.5 percentage points.
Share of out-of-state mortgage applications by year
Data source: Cotality, 2025
The price of certainty
People will always move out of state, but they are doing so about 15% less frequently than they did five years ago. That trend is at odds with the increasing number of homes coming up for sale.
A glance at the market reveals that there is more choice than there’s been in years, yet buyers aren’t biting. The problem is price.
In September, the national median list price held at just above $400,000, while mortgage rates hovered near 7%. Those figures have swollen the number of cost burdened households to a third of those with mortgages. Add in the overall increase in the cost of living, and taking on a new, high-rate mortgage is something many families choose to forego. Cotality data shows closed sales were down 15% year-over-year, despite a 10% rise in pending deals.
Home prices aren’t the only reason that migration between states is slowing. Cotality experts point to the continued lock-in effect as a major deterrent for interstate moves. Established homeowners with paid off homes or low mortgage interest rates are now hesitant to take on current rates and prices. Plus, an aging population and less opportunity for remote work is also leading to people staying put.
Cotality data shows that more seniors are aging in place, which is eroding traditional retirement migration patterns of downsizing and moving to warmer climes. However, the north to south pipeline hasn’t completely dried up.
Changes in latitude, changes in attitude
The South remains a desirable place to relocate, with Florida, Texas, and the Carolinas welcoming the largest number of newcomers. But American tastes are changing, and it largely depends on age.
Cotality data shows that while Florida and Texas dominated in-migration between 2019 and 2023, South Carolina has taken the top spot since 2024. Still, Texas does remain a top destination for younger homebuyers, many of whom come from California and Florida.
In 2025, the Lone Star State welcomed the largest number of buyers between the ages of 20 and 35. Many of these buyers were motivated by the state’s lower taxes, more affordable housing, and employment opportunities. Similarly, younger homebuyers seeking fewer taxes and more affordable lifestyles are drifting to Nevada from California, and New Yorkers from this age group are applying for mortgages in the neighboring states of New Jersey and Connecticut.
Ratios of people moving in and out of states with high migration
Data source: Cotality, 2025
High prices, large tax burdens, and quality of life concerns are usually attributed to people moving out of state, but there is increasingly a generational divide as to where these lifestyle considerations are pushing people.
Pricey states like California, New York, and Massachusetts are all losing more homebuyers than they’re gaining, but different age groups are picking different arrival destinations. Younger generations tend to stay close to their original locations, with Northeasterners staying in the general region and West Coast inhabitants remaining in the Southwest. Those over 55 are more likely to make Florida their new home.
While Florida continues to be the third most popular destination for newcomers, Cotality data found that migration patterns are shifting along generational lines. Escalating property insurance costs and home prices have pushed younger Floridians to nearby states like South Carolina and Georgia while the older buyers continue to arrive from colder, pricier states.
A recipe for disaster
Regardless of which generation a homebuyer comes from, they all have one thing in common: they are searching for affordability in areas that are prone to natural disasters.
“Affordability tends to be associated with sales price,” explained Cotality Principal Economist Archana Pradhan. "But lower monthly payments don’t always translate to long-term stability, especially in the areas where we see people moving. Insurance costs are likely to make homeowners’ futures costly despite the cheap homes that are available today.”
States all along the Gulf Coast and Mid-Atlantic region have seen the cost of homeowners insurance climb over the last several years. Nationwide, costs have increased 74% in the past fifteen years. In some storm-prone states, insurers are withdrawing altogether. In those cases where insurance is unavailable, the costs fall to the homeowner.
While home prices may look like a bargain in the states attracting the most Americans, the cost of keeping a home may become too much to bear. Risk is becoming another barrier to homeownership.
Florida has already revealed what happens when risk outpaces resilience. Insurers exit. Premiums spike. Properties lose value. Markets freeze. These same patterns may evolve in other states where natural disaster risk is growing unless resilience becomes a cornerstone of homeownership. Left unchecked, the strain created by market unaffordability and escalating natural disaster risk could further stymie Americans ability to move and prevent people from entering homeownership altogether.
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