Overview
Update: October 28, 2025
Hurricane Melissa has intensified further while pivoting north-northeast and is now roaring ashore on Jamaica with sustained winds of 185 mph and a minimum central pressure of 892 mb, its strongest reading yet. That pressure places Melissa among the most intense storms on record. At 11 a.m. EDT the eye was fixed around 40 miles southeast of Negril, moving north-northeast at 9 mph.
Jamaica is already suffering severe impacts: roughly 240,000 electricity customers are without power and authorities are warning of imminent flash-flooding. Pricing on Jamaica’s $150 million World Bank-sponsored IBRD CAR Jamaica 2024 catastrophe bond has dropped as investors brace for a possible trigger once official wind or pressure readings are finalized.
The latest National Hurricane Center advisory extends a Tropical Storm Warning to the Turks and Caicos Islands and upgrades Cuba’s Las Tunas province to a Hurricane Warning, reflecting Melissa’s expected track across southeastern Cuba tonight and into the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.
Cotality will continue to monitor Hurricane Melissa and provide updates as new information becomes available.
Update: October 27, 2025
Cotality estimates damages from Hurricane Melissa between $5 – $10 billion.
Hurricane Melissa has seized the title of the strongest storm of the 2025 Atlantic season, its 165 mph (270 km/h) winds and 908 mb eye driving a stadium wall of cloud only ten nautical miles wide.
Melissa is the third Category 5 hurricane of the year, following Erin in mid-August and Humberto earlier this month. Only one other Atlantic season on record has produced as many storms of this magnitude.
At the latest advisory the center sat about 145 miles (230 km) southwest of Kingston, crawling west at 3 mph but expected to pivot north later today. Hurricane-force winds already sweep 30 miles from the core and tropical-storm gales reach 195 miles, putting much of Jamaica under punishing squalls long before the eye arrives.
Figure: Hurricane Melissa five-day forecast cone with current watches and warnings, NHC Advisory #25, Oct. 27, 2025. Source: NHC
The forecast track keeps the eye on a slow arc over Jamaica tonight and early Tuesday, then across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night and into the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday before bending northeast toward Bermuda. Even modest weakening over Jamaica’s terrain would leave Melissa a major hurricane when it re-emerges over water.
Rainfall projections of 15–30 inches, with mountain peaks near 40 inches, threaten catastrophic flash floods and landslides. Life-threatening storm surge of 9–13 feet is expected along Jamaica’s south coast, accompanied by destructive waves. Eastern Cuba faces 15–20 inches of rain and surge of 7–11 feet; southern Hispaniola 8–16 inches; the Turks and Caicos and the southeast Bahamas 4–8 inches plus four to six feet of surge.
Jamaica’s economic exposure is severe. The country’s most recent World Bank tables place nominal GDP near $19.9 billion. A direct Category 5 landfall on the nation’s most populous corridor could significantly strain public finances for years to come. Cotality estimates damages from Hurricane Melissa between $5 – $10 billion.
Reinsurance and capital-markets cushions will be tested. Jamaica’s $150 million World Bank-sponsored IBRD CAR Jamaica 2024 parametric catastrophe bond has already traded down as investors anticipate a trigger should official wind or pressure readings meet the bond’s thresholds. Local insurers retain higher deductibles than before the recent hard market, yet international reinsurers still hold the lion’s share of property-catastrophe exposure. A multi-billion-dollar insured loss, even a mid-single-digit figure in absolute terms, could represent one of the most concentrated reinsurance events ever seen in the Caribbean and could pierce several aggregate covers.
Authorities closed both international airports, opened 881 shelters and issued mandatory evacuation orders for the lowest-lying districts of Kingston, Old Harbour Bay and Port Royal. Residents across the island were urged to move to sturdy shelter by afternoon; after sunset, conditions may become too dangerous for travel.
Melissa’s eyewall is expected to reach Jamaica’s south coast after nightfall.
Cotality will continue to monitor Hurricane Melissa and provide updates as new information becomes available.
Update: October 26, 2025
In the span of a single afternoon, Hurricane Melissa exploded into a Category 4 giant. As of 5 p.m. local time (2100 UTC) on Sunday, October 26, the eye sits only 115 miles (185 km) south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, packing sustained winds of 145 mph and a central pressure of 941 mb, numbers that underscore just how quickly this storm has become a serious threat.
Rapid Strengthening
Data from an afternoon Hurricane Hunter flight show Melissa picked up speed again after a short lull. Pressure fell another 12 mb, the eye shrank to only six miles wide, and satellite pictures reveal an almost perfect stadium-shaped eye surrounded by extremely cold cloud tops. Peak flight-level winds of 148 mph and a surface gust of 150 mph back up the current intensity estimate.
Impacts to Jamaica
A Hurricane Warning covers all of Jamaica. Tropical-storm winds are likely already brushing some coastal areas, and full hurricane conditions are expected by Monday. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is forecasting 15 to 30 inches of rain. Isolated spots could see up to 40 inches, raising the risk of dangerous flash floods and landslides. Storm surge along Jamaica’s south coast could push water 9 to 13 feet above the normal tide while driving powerful, destructive waves ashore.
Figure 1: Hurricane Melissa five-day forecast cone with current watches and warnings, NHC Advisory #22, Oct. 26, 2025. Source: NHC
Path After Jamaica
Melissa is drifting west at just 5 mph, but a sharp turn to the north and then northeast is expected Monday as steering winds change. The official track brings the center directly over Jamaica late Monday night or early Tuesday, through southeastern Cuba on Tuesday night, and into the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday. Mountain terrain will likely knock the winds down a bit, yet the storm should stay strong enough to be a major threat through its Cuban landfall.
Wind and Rain Footprint
Hurricane-force winds stretch up to 30 miles from the eye, and tropical-storm winds reach almost 205 miles out. Eastern Cuba could receive 10 to 15 inches of rain, with pockets approaching 20 inches. Southern Hispaniola may see 8 to 16 inches, and the southeastern Bahamas 4 to 8 inches plus surge. Large, dangerous swells are already rolling into Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands and will build across the Bahamas and eventually Bermuda.
Cotality will continue to monitor Hurricane Melissa and provide updates as new information becomes available.
