Overview
Heavy thunderstorms during the weekend of July 4 dropped more than 10 inches of rain across several Central Texas river basins, sending walls of water downstream and triggering widespread flash flooding across the region. Tragically, the disaster took more than 120 lives with at least 170 still missing, shaking Texas Hill Country communities. It is the deadliest flash flood event in U.S. history since the 1976 Big Thompson Canyon Flood in Colorado.
Our thoughts go out to those affected, many of whom face months of recovery ahead of them.
Preliminary property impact analysis
Cotality’s Hazard HQ Command Central™ analyzed the wide swath of impacted area across Central Texas. This initial analysis determined that:
- An estimated over 38,600 residential structures were within the flood footprint of counties that were deemed eligible for individual and public assistance by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and may have experienced flood damage
- Of these counties, Tom Green, Travis, Kerr, Williamson, and Burnet are home to the greatest number of residential properties potentially impacted by flooding.
Number of residential properties by county within modeled flood footprint in counties determined to be eligible for individual and public assistance by FEMA
Data source: Cotality, 2025
Not all properties within the flood footprint were damaged. While the analysis did consider the First Floor Height (FFH) elevation, any residential property with as little as 1 inch of water was considered impacted. The total number of damaged properties will likely be a subset of the 38,600 identified in Cotality’s initial analysis.
About the Central Texas storm
The Hill Country of Central Texas lies in what is known as “Flash Flood Alley,” a corridor along the Balcones Escarpment. It is an area of steep, limestone hills with thin soils and urbanized corridors that quickly move rainwater into rivers. The alley stretches from San Antonio through Austin to Dallas. Flash floods are common in this area because of the combination of unique terrain and Gulf-fed storms with heavy and prolonged rainfall.
The rainfall event that caused the devastating flash floods over the weekend of July 4 is traced to a convective vortex that formed when lingering Gulf moisture from Tropical Storm Barry stalled over the Hill Country. The slow-moving storm produced rainfall rates topping 3 inches per hour, creating an explosive rise in the Guadalupe River.
Historic record levels were measured at stream gauges across the region. Stream gauge data in Hunt, Texas showed the river rose roughly more than 30 feet in 95 minutes, with one sensor failing after topping out over 37 feet, a record level for that area. Meanwhile, gauge data in Kerrville, Texas showed the river surged roughly 22 feet in one hour, cresting near 34 feet.
Looking ahead
Communities along these rivers now grapple with immense loss while confronting a massive cleanup, including rebuilding roads and infrastructure. Homeowners face the daunting task of repair and recovery, and for some it will be without the financial support of flood insurance.
Flood insurance will be the primary mechanism for financial recovery for homeowners with flash flood-damaged property. But flood insurance is not included in standard homeowner’s insurance. It is only required for homes that have a mortgage within the Special Flood Hazard Area.
Unfortunately, flood insurance penetration is low in the counties hit hardest by the flash flooding. An initial analysis of the National Flood Insurance Program policies in force in the nine counties eligible for Federal Individual of Public Assistance shows that there is low take up of flood insurance in the hardest-hit areas. Across the nine counties, there are under 14,000 policies in force.
Cotality continues to analyze the impacts of this event and may provide more information once available.
