Press Release
October YOY home price growth stays flat
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index, formerly known as the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, is a leading measure of U.S. residential real estate prices.
IRVINE, Calif., December 30, 2025 — The housing market stayed cool in October, with price growth flattening out as sellers held listings off the market in hopes of securing higher prices in the spring. Annual growth held steady at 1.4% in October, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index.
Month-over-month, the non-seasonally adjusted index declined -0.2% (Figure 2), marking the fourth consecutive monthly drop. This downward momentum is part of a broader cooling trend; since April, monthly appreciation has consistently stayed below its historical average. While prices typically remain flat in October, the current trajectory suggests that if appreciation continues below historical norms through year-end, 2025 will be the slowest year for price growth since 2011.
“After a record-breaking start to the decade, the housing market is now undergoing a correction as it deals with the aftereffects” said Thom Malone, Principal Economist at Cotality. “Many potential sellers are reluctant to give up their low-interest rates from the early 2020s. Meanwhile, those who do list are finding a buyer pool unable to support prices that preserve the equity gains of the last five years. This trend is no longer regional—it is a national realignment, signaling the end of the divided market of early 2025.”
Annual growth stays flat in October, ending nine month slide
Data source: S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices, not seasonally adjusted (December 30, 2025)
Monthly declines remain below historical average
Data source: S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices, not seasonally adjusted (December 30, 2025)
In October, 10 metros in the 20-City Index saw year-over-year growth accelerate compared to September (Figure 3). Chicago, New York, and Cleveland led with annual gains of 5.8%, 5.0%, and 4.1%. Meanwhile, nine metros posted annual declines, with Tampa recording the largest drop at -4.2%, marking its 12th consecutive month of annual drops. As Sun Belt staples like Phoenix and Dallas also saw -1.5% annual declines, it’s clear the pandemic-driven 'gold rush' has officially cooled. The market has entered a period of national recalibration where stagnant price growth—currently trailing inflation by nearly two percentage points—is the new baseline.
Annual price growth accelerated in 10 metros in October compared to September
Data source: S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices, not seasonally adjusted (December 30, 2025)
Monthly growth was below historical averages in 17 metros in the 20-City Index. Denver saw the largest monthly decline at -1.0% (Figure 4). This cooling is particularly evident in the month-over-month data, where 16 markets saw outright price declines in October. Meanwhile, Phoenix is significantly outperforming its peers with 0.4% growth while trending near its historical average.
Monthly price changes well below historical trends
Data source: S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices, not seasonally adjusted (December 30, 2025)
Price declines were similar across price tiers, averaging -0.5% for low-priced homes, -0.3% for mid-priced, and -0.4% for high-priced homes (Figure 5). No segment currently shows signs of strong, sustained appreciation.
Price adjustments continue across low, medium, and high-tier markets
Data source: S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices, not seasonally adjusted (December 30, 2025)
Inventory levels and days on market continued to rise in October while pending sales fell, adhering to the historical pattern of a volume-driven rather than price-driven cycle. The current imbalance between seller expectations and buyer affordability resembles past periods of economic strain; however, this mismatch was sparked by a rapid rise in housing costs rather than a broader downturn. The path forward will likely be gradual as the economy catches up and buyer purchasing power realigns with current price points.
