Annual home price growth ends 2025 at 1.3%, the weakest since 2011

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index, formerly known as the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, is a leading measure of U.S. residential real estate prices.

IRVINE, Calif., February 24, 2026 — The 2025 housing market ended with the weakest annual appreciation since the market bottomed out in 2011 following the Great Recession. Buyers and sellers remain at an impasse, as potential homebuyers are unable or unwilling to meet the current listing prices.  Annual growth remained steady at 1.3% in December (Figure 1), according to the S&P Cotality Case‑Shiller Index.  

Month‑over‑month, the non‑seasonally adjusted index declined 0.3% (Figure 2), sitting 0.3% below its pre‑pandemic average. However, the stage is set for the market to pick up slightly in 2026, with the potential for rates to drop slightly during the year.

“2025 marked the end of an unprecedented period of price growth,” said Thom Malone, Principal Economist at Cotality. “Following a five-year run of gains—including the 19% peak in 2021—growth fell to a mere 1.3% in 2025. The market is now waiting for the broader economy to catch up. While a correction in 2026 is possible to realign the two, the more likely scenario is a year of only nominal price growth.”

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Annual home price growth shows stability in December

Data source: S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices, not seasonally adjusted (February 24, 2026)

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Monthly declines remain below historical averages

Data source: S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices, not seasonally adjusted (February 24, 2026)

In December, seven metros in the 20-City Index showed year-over-year growth, with Chicago, New York, and Cleveland leading at 5.3%, 5.1%, and 4%, respectively. This trend indicates resilience in affordable Midwest and Northeast markets. In contrast, nine metros, including Tampa with a -2.9% decline, experienced annual drops. The downturn suggests that higher interest rates are disproportionately affecting once-overheated Sun Belt markets, where price growth has outpaced local income gains.

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Annual price growth accelerated in seven metros in December compared to November

Data source: S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices, not seasonally adjusted (February 24, 2026)

Monthly growth trailed historical averages in 15 of the 20 metros as a surge in Western and Sun Belt listings began to weigh on price momentum. Minneapolis and Denver experienced the sharpest monthly contractions at -0.7% each, largely driven by a significant influx of new for-sale homes that has shifted leverage toward buyers. Conversely, San Diego emerged as the index’s standout performer with a +0.4% gain.

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Monthly price changes well below historical trends

Data source: S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices, not seasonally adjusted (February 24, 2026)

Price declines were steeper among low and mid‑priced homes, averaging ‑0.4% and ‑0.3%, respectively. High‑priced homes declined 0.2% (Figure 5). San Diego was the only Metro in the 20-City Index to see a broad-based price increase.

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Price adjustments continue across low, medium, and high-tier markets

Data source: S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices, not seasonally adjusted (February 24, 2026)

Currently, a significant gap remains between seller expectations and buyer affordability. Many homeowners are choosing to delist and wait for more favorable conditions rather than lower their asking prices. As a result, the market is set to remain stagnant, with slow price growth and low sales volumes for the time being.

Eventually, personal circumstances will necessitate sales, and potentially lower mortgage rates could provide a modest boost to activity in 2026. However, a full recovery in housing market momentum is unlikely until the broader economy catches up with the significant price gains from the earlier part of the decade—a process that will likely be gradual.