Overview
Cotality Hazard HQ Command Central™ releases preliminary industry insured loss estimates for Storm Kristin utilizing newly available, validated wind gust observation data from various European meteorological agencies.
- Portugal insured loss estimate range: 300 million EUR – 450 million EUR
- Spain insured loss estimate range: 40 million EUR – 100 million EUR
This estimate represents insured losses from wind damage to buildings, contents, and business interruption to residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural properties across the Iberian Peninsula. (Localised flooding and landslides are not included).
Meteorological Details
Kristin is the 26th named storm of the 2025–2026 season and the 11th named by the southwestern group of European countries. While the storm hit Portugal the hardest, it also impacted Spain, Italy, and Greece.
"Status Red" warnings of hurricane-force winds were issued by both the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere (IMPA) and the Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET). The National Emergency and Civil Protection Authority elevated Portugal to the highest level of mobilization 24 hours before landfall.
Kristin formed as a secondary low on Tuesday, Jan. 27, and reached a minimum central pressure of 975mb. Analysis suggests that the storm may have developed a sting jet — a localized area of very strong gusts — before landfall in Portugal in the early hours of Wednesday, Jan. 28.
Strong gusts were observed in Coimbra and Leiria municipalities, with a record-breaking 130 mph measured in Soure, Coimbra. In Leiria, gusts of 109 mph at the Monte Real airbase and 97 mph at the Leiria aerodrome were recorded. Kristin continued to track eastwards and weakened relatively quickly, dissipating on Jan. 31.
The Impact
The Centro region of Portugal was most impacted by the storm, where the districts of Leiria, Coimbra, Castelo Branco, Santarém, and Portalegre experienced high gust windspeeds. There were also high levels of precipitation in Lisbon and Setúbal districts, leading to localized flooding.
There are reports of property damage due to strong gust winds across the district of Leiria, an area known for plastic and metal industry activities. Examples of the damage include the partial destruction of the municipal sports center in Leiria, damage to F-16 jets at the Monte Real air base near Leiria, and widespread reports of damage to large roofed buildings such as churches, factories, and schools across the area. Additionally, there was significant damage to the Leiria National Forest.
Critical transport infrastructure was severely interrupted in the affected areas in addition to widespread power outages affecting nearly 1M customers across Portugal. Approximately 10% of the population were affected. As the storm tracked east and south across southern Spain, there were over 150,000 properties affected by power outages in Andalucia.
Storm Kristin is the most damaging wind event since ex-hurricane Leslie struck western Portugal in 2018 and is expected to surpass those levels of economic and insured losses. Earlier this week, the Portuguese government approved an emergency funding package of loans and incentives up to 2.5 billion EUR to assist and expedite householder and business recovery. With flooding from Storm Leonardo closely following Kristin, the total economic damage from the storms could be in the 3B EUR – 4B EUR range. Cotality will continue to monitor the situation.
