Overview
- Since 2020, QLD and WA home values more than doubled as dwelling completions lagged behind population growth.
- QLD saw 25% of national population growth but under 20% of completions; WA saw 17% of growth but only 10% of completions. This imbalance fueled intense seller's markets in Brisbane and Perth.
- Conversely, VIC completions (33% of national total) outpaced growth, while SA values rose 90% despite supply and demand remaining aligned.
The supply gap: WA and QLD home values double as population growth outpaces new construction
A profound supply-demand imbalance has emerged as a key contributor to divergent home value trends across Australia since the start of 2020, according to a recent analysis by Cotality.
Analysis from Cotality’s April Housing Chart Pack reveals that between Q1 2020 and Q3 2025, the strongest growth in home values was concentrated in states where the rate of dwelling completions has lagged significantly behind population growth.
Share of population growth and dwelling completions from Q1 2020 to Q3 2025 by Australia state
Cotality Australia’s Head of Research Gerard Burg noted Western Australia (WA) and Queensland (QLD) were the primary examples of this trend.
“In WA and QLD, the share of dwelling completions fell well behind the share of population growth, with these states seeing home values more than double since 2020.
“QLD accounted for over 25% of the total increase in Australia's population over this period, but less than 20% of the dwellings completed were located in QLD,” he said.
“In WA, across the same period, the share of the country’s population growth was nearly 17%, in contrast just 10% of completed dwellings.”
Mr Burg highlighted that the QLD also recorded the largest population increase in the country, with over 25% of national growth attributed to people migrating likely in pursuit of a lifestyle shift for warmer climate and relative affordability.
“QLD has long attracted retirees from other states, and, until recently, offered buyers some more affordable markets compared with other major cities. Net migration to QLD has started to slow in the last few quarters, and First Home Buyers may increasingly look to opportunities elsewhere,” he said.
At the other end of the spectrum, Victoria (VIC) accounted for the largest share of home completions in this period – around one-third (33%) of the total – outpacing its share of population growth.
“Policy support at both the State and Federal level assisted the growth in VIC dwellings over this period. Almost 63% of this new supply in VIC were stand-alone houses, which we see Australians still have a revealed preference for. In NSW, for example, the split between houses and units was closer to 50-50.”
Meanwhile, South Australia (SA) remains a notable outlier in the findings, recording strong growth in home values, of over 90% over the five-year period, despite dwelling completions remaining similar to population growth.
“Overall, when we see a supply-demand imbalance such as those in Perth or Brisbane, we wind up with a large pool of buyers competing for a small pool of dwellings. This creates a seller’s market and can rapidly drive up home values, as we saw in these two capitals.”
Other highlights from the April Housing Chart Pack include:
- Australia’s residential real estate total market value rose to $12.6 trillion in March.
- National dwelling values rose 2.1% over the quarter, and accelerated to 9.9% annually in March, the fastest 12-month pace of growth since June 2022.
- Regional markets have been more resilient to a slowdown in value growth, likely supported by regional migration trends and affordability.
- There is a clear divergence in growth trends, the rolling four-week change has deepened a little across Sydney and Melbourne, while the mid-sized capitals lost some steam.
- Cotality estimates that almost 559,457 sales have transacted in 2026, 1.9% lower than a year ago but 5.6% higher than the five-year average.
- Median time on market was 30 days nationally, down from 33 days in Q1 2025, with capital city homes selling fastest in Perth (nine days) and slowest in Darwin (47 days) and Canberra (43 days).
- Vendor activity has been lower than average for this time of the year. There were 36,712 new listings over the four weeks ending 5 April 2026, down -3.3% compared to March last year.
- Most of the capitals have also seen the number of new listings tracking lower than a year ago, with Brisbane (3.3%) and Hobart (9.1%) the exceptions.
- Rental markets remain extremely tight, recording a vacancy rate of 1.6% in March.
- Gross rental yields nationally rose to 3.57% in March, with Darwin (6.0%) continuing to stand out with the highest gross yields, while Sydney (3.1%.) records the lowest.
