Overview
- Cotality’s national home value index rose 0.3% in April, the slowest pace of growth since January 2025.
- The result was dragged lower by Sydney and Melbourne, where values fell 0.6% over the month. While the mid-sized capitals have also lost momentum over the past month.
- Growth is increasingly concentrated in lower-priced segments where credit availability plays a key role
Cotality’s national home value index rose 0.3% in April, the slowest pace of growth since January 2025, just ahead of last year’s rate‑cutting cycle. The national result was dragged lower by Sydney and Melbourne, where values fell 0.6% over the month.
Sydney home values are now 1.0% below their November peak, while Melbourne values are 1.9% below their November 2025 cyclical high and 2.3% below the March 2022 peak.
Every capital city recorded a slower pace of growth in April, but conditions remain highly diverse.
Perth’s growth is clearly losing steam, but the market remains strong; values rose 2.1% in April, adding more than $21,000 to the median dwelling value.
Brisbane, Adelaide and Darwin also saw growth slow, but from a high base, with values still rising by more than 1% month-on-month in each city.
Cotality’s research director, Tim Lawless, said the easing in market conditions has been building since late last year.
“The housing market was losing momentum from late last year as affordability and serviceability constraints weighed on demand.”
“Now we have the additional downside pressure of higher interest rates, sentiment has fallen off a cliff, and rising inflation is set to drive the cost of debt even higher.”
Softer housing conditions have been accompanied by a slowdown in buyer demand. Estimates of capital city home sales over the past three months were 5.4% lower than a year ago and 7.4% below the previous five-year average. Advertised stock levels have also lifted in the weakest markets, sitting 9.4% above the five-year average in Sydney and 2.2% above average in Melbourne.
While inventory remains tight across the mid-sized capitals, advertised listings are also rising in these markets—albeit from a low base and still well below typical levels for this time of year.
This imbalance between demand and supply is also showing up in auction clearance rates, which have held below 55% since the last week of March.
Growth is increasingly concentrated in lower-priced segments, a trend that is becoming more evident—and more widespread geographically. Every capital city is recording stronger growth in the lower quartile, as demand concentrates where credit availability and first home buyer incentives have the greatest influence.
“The largest difference between upper and lower quartile value growth is in Sydney, where lower-tier house values are up 2.9% year-to-date compared with a 3.3% fall across the most expensive quarter of the market,” Mr Lawless said.
Regional markets have been more resilient amid the broader slowdown, supported by relatively lower values and above-average internal migration. Over the first four months of the year, the combined regionals index rose 4.2% versus a 1.8% lift across the combined capitals. Even so, momentum is easing, with the 0.9% monthly rise in April being the smallest increase in nine months.
Focusing on SA4 sub-markets over the first four months of the year, the strongest growth conditions have been in WA’s Bunbury (+9.8%), Queensland’s Darling Downs-Maranoa (+7.9%) and the Far West & Orana of NSW (+7.5%). No regional sub-markets have recorded a decline in values over the first four months of the year.
