The wait is over. With the Government’s publication of the Warm Homes Plan last week, we finally have the roadmap required to kickstart the transformation of our housing stock. But after years of stop-start policy, can we deliver at the pace required?
- The Warm Homes Plan is to invest £15bn in reducing energy bills and carbon emissions
- Current schemes deliver improvements at a rate of 684 per day
- To achieve ambition, a rate of 3,885 a day is required, from now to 31st December 2030.
At Cotality, we believe the answer is yes, we can deliver at the pace required - but only if weleverage the right data and infrastructure to turn this high-level policy intoon-the-ground reality.
The publication of the £15bn Warm Homes Plan marks a decisive shift in the UK’s energy efficiency landscape. For too long, the sector has operated in a fog of uncertainty. Now, with confirmed deadlines for the Private Rented Sector (PRS) and a "universal offer" for households, that fog has lifted.
Here is our assessment of the Plan, the pace of change required, and how Cotality is ready to support every stakeholder in delivering warmer, healthier homes.
The Pace of Delivery: Breaking the "Boom and Bust" Cycle
To understand where we are going, we must look at where we have been. The last five years of energy efficiency delivery in the UK have been a rollercoaster.
With the failure of the Green Homes Grant in 2021, the industry missed the opportunity for a much-needed boost as the country emerged from COVID.
More recent data offered a glimmer of hope. In 2024, we saw a 27% increase in installed measures compared to the previous year, driven largely by the recovery of the ECO scheme and the belated acceleration of the Great British Insulation Scheme (GBIS). But the rollercoaster came back to earth with the NAO report last year, and the subsequent decision to end ECO alongside GBIS in Spring 2026.
Of the 173,161 homes treated in 12 months ending in 2025,ECO4 and GBIS were responsible for funding in 68% of cases. The next largest scheme was the Boiler Upgrade Scheme, which supported work in 30,482 homes(17.6%), followed by the Social Housing Decarbonisation Fund (14,595 homes,8.43%) and the local authority Home Upgrade Grant, HUG (9,492, 5.48%).
In total these schemes completed works on a total of 684 homes per working day. Only 216 of these were delivered by schemes which will continue under the Warm Homes Plan.
To meet the Government's target of upgrading 5 million homes by 2030, the supply chain needs to complete 3,885 projects a day between now and 31st December 2030.
This is ambitious with the existing supply chain – and even more so when we know so many face an uncertain future due to the closure of ECO and GBIS.
There is a route to success but it requires swift action and learning from past programmes and current obstacles in the market, while also addressing the consumer protection issues raised by NAO.
A call to action for stakeholders
The Warm Homes Plan is not just a policy document; it is a signal to the entire market. Different stakeholders beyond the core supply chain now have distinct, urgent roles to play:
- For Social Housing & Local Authorities: You are in the driving seat and have shown your ability to deliver quality. The Plan places a heavy emphasis on area-based retrofitting and local delivery. The challenges? Procurement places a hefty delay into the Government’s timeline, along with the cost of duplication of effort for both the procuring authority and bidders. Take 9 months out of the above timeline for procurement – which is a timeline we often see - and that adds a further 14% to the rate required from the supply chain to deliver the Government’s ambition by end of 2030.
- For Private Landlords: The confirmation of the 2030 deadline for EPC Band C (and the new cost cap of £10,000) gives some clarity; the retention of a ten year validity period, more exemptions, and the option to comply with the current cost rating calculation until 2029 gives room for manoeuvre; and lenders’ reporting requirements may provide financial motivation. But there is some way to go. How will the exemptions work in practice? And why has Government suggested reliance on EPC recommendations given they don’t address damp and mould risk or necessarily recommend the most cost-effective route to ‘Band C’? For those seeking clarity now, services like Ecofurb help landlords navigate options to find what will deliver on the new standards, while also taking into account potential exemptions, lender requirements, and owner preferences.
- For Lenders: The £15bn public investment is significant, but private finance is the missing multiplier that’s needed to meet the goals – particularly for homeowners and small landlords. The Plan places emphasis on blended finance options, and the desire to help lenders deliver finance options that nudge middle-income households into retrofitting their homes. Will this desire generate action – perhaps not as much as bolstered by the concurrent formalisation and regulation of sustainability reporting in financial services, where UK banks and building societies are now bound to prove the climate resilience of their £1.6 bn mortgage books.
- For Estate Agents: The EPC will continue to be judged valid by a ten-year period rather than accuracy at point of use, continuing cause for confusion, but whether it’s to support landlords or prospective tenants, Estate Agents will need to help parties navigate the new rules.
- For Government: Support for those ECO installers not implicated by the NAO findings is now key to ensure that the workforce is not lost. Detailed feedback is required from that audit in order to understand the gap between the NAO’s findings and that in the wider market, and how consumer protections can avoid future issues as delivery accelerates – across heat, solar, storage and fabric measures. With funding already in place, and a clear need for the continuation of a national fuel poverty programme, much of the ECO infrastructure can be re-used but with a greater emphasis on independent oversight, fraud prevention and consumer protection – all of which can be unlocked with existing policy and procurement mechanisms. So long as additional intervention is not required by Government, turnkey projects will remain many procuring authority’s preferred approach to avoid the upfront cost of independent oversight.
Cotality is ready
At Cotality, we can see our work reflected across the Plan. Wehave built the UK’s most robust infrastructure for retrofit decision-making,developed through lessons learned from weaknesses in the EPB framework, thefailure of the Green Deal and subsequent grants to consider the full consumerjourney, our own individual retrofit experiences, and curiosity to make datawork smarter to help cut bills and carbon emissions faster.
We are not just observers of the Warm Homes Plan; we are theenablers of it.
- For Strategy: Our housing analytics allow lenders, local authorities and landlords to model pathways to EPC C across thousands of properties, finding the most cost-effective route to compliance and related estimates and information to empower decision-makers. Moreover, we now work with Asset Managers, Planners and their third partysoftware providers to integrate and dynamically optimise long term investment plans.
- For Delivery: Our One Stop Shop service bridges the gap between complex policy, consumer protections and confused homeowners. We provide the independent advice, coordination and protectionsthat can ensure the "Universal Offer" actually lands with consumers.
- For Accuracy: With the upcoming shift to new EPC metrics (focusing on fabric, clean heat and smart readiness alongside cost), our calculation engines and high-resolution data are already able to handle the complexity that EPCs miss.
The Warm Homes Plan is the signal we have been waiting for. It is ambitious, necessary, and - crucially - funded.
But plans don't insulate lofts; people do. And people need clear, actionable data to make the right choices. That is where we come in, with the right level of data at the right time in the customer journey to inform decisions and deliver efficiencies.
Next Steps
Are you ready for 2030?
Whether you are a Local Authority planning an area-based scheme or a portfolio landlord or lender assessing your risk, do not guess. Contact Cotality’s team today to run a data-led diagnostic on your housing stock and prepare for the first rounds of funding.
