Overview
- NZ property resale profits have stabilised, with 88.1% of homes selling for more than their purchase price in Q4 2025, ending three consecutive quarterly declines and signalling the market may have reached a trough.
- Homeowners are holding properties for longer than ever, with the median hold period for profitable resales hitting a record 10.1 years, reflecting flat price conditions and a reluctance to sell into a softer market.
New Zealand’s property owners are holding onto their properties for thelongest period since records began, as the trend of declining profit and morefrequent losses for vendors stabilises.
Cotality NZ’s Pain and Gain Report for Q4 2025 shows 88.1%of residential properties resold for more than their original purchase price inthe December quarter, broadly in line with 88.0% in Q3.
While the figure is still well below the peak of more than 99% recordedin late 2021, the latest result marks an end to three consecutive quarterlydeclines for profit-making resales.
Cotality NZ Chief Property Economist KelvinDavidson said the figures suggest the market has entered a trough, which isconsistent with how wider property values nationally have performed in recentmonths.
“Resale performance is still soft compared with the boom years, but thedata suggests the downward drift has slowed and flatlined, and conditions arebroadly holding steady,” Mr Davidson said.
“Property values have flattened out in recent months, and that stabilityis now flowing through to resale data. This has been a gradual downwards drift inresale performance since early 2022 rather than a slump, and almost nine out of10 sellers are still making a profit when they trade.”
The national median resale gain in Q4 was $298,000, down from thelate-2021 peak of $440,000 but still higher than anything seen prior to 2021.The median resale loss was $55,000, only slightly higher than in the Septemberquarter.
As always, it’s worth keeping in mind that these gains, at least forowner occupiers, aren’t necessarily cash windfalls if they simply have to useall of that fresh equity for their next property purchase.
Hold periods hit highest level on record
Properties resold for a gain in Q4 had been held for a median of 10.1years, the longest period recorded in the series dating back to the mid-1990s.
By contrast, homes resold at a loss had typically been owned for 3.9years, which Mr Davidson noted placed many purchases close to the country’smost recent market peak.
“We haven’t seen a significant jump in the historical time ranges, butthis hold period surpasses the previous high of 9.4 years, which was only setin the September quarter last year,” he said.
“This highlights the weakness of property values that has persisted sincelate 2021, which may be prompting some owners to hold longer as they look tomaximise their capital growth. In other cases, it may reflect a quieter market andsellers are having to wait longer for a sale.”
Houses outperform apartments
Standalone houses continued to record a lower frequency of resale lossesthan apartments in Q4, with house resale performance broadly steady over thequarter.
Apartments remained more exposed to loss-making resales, reflectingsmaller long-term capital gains and greater sensitivity to recent marketconditions. Even so, Mr Davidson said there is little evidence of widespreaddistressed or forced selling.
“Apartments tend to feel market downturns more acutely, but the data doesnot point to sellers under pressure or fire sales occurring,” Mr Davidson said.
“The gap largely reflects long-run differences in performance rather thanany sudden deterioration in demand for property types.”
Main centres show tentative improvement
Several main centres recorded small improvements in resale outcomes overthe December quarter, helping underpin the national stabilisation.
Auckland continued to have the highest share of loss-making resales amongthe main centres at 17.4%, although this was down from Q3. Wellington andTauranga also recorded modest easing, while Dunedin saw the sharpest quarterlyimprovement.
Christchurch remained the most resilient of the main centres, with 5.3%of resales made at a loss in Q4.
“We’d probably need another quarter or two of flatter results before callinga genuine turning point, but there are already tentative hints that resellersare starting to fare a little better in the main centres,” he said.
Outlook stable, not spectacular
New Zealand’s economic outlook, early signs of rising sales volumes and atentative easing in listings may begin to support house price growth in 2026.
Mr Davidson said lower mortgage rates are likely to provide some support,particularly as housing market conditions become more settled.
“Lower interest rates should help underpin demand, but any lift in pricesis likely to be gradual rather than a sharp rebound,” Mr Davidson said.
He cautioned that several more months of consistent sales activity wouldbe needed before the downturn could be considered over.
“Conditions are improving at the margin, we’re seeing this in some of themain centres, and a stabilisation in value declines, but the data suggests we’reentering a period of stability rather than a boom” he said.
