Five years later: the Tubbs fire

Five years ago, on October 8, 2017, at 10 p.m., the Tubbs Fire erupted in the wildlands north of Calistoga, California. Within hours, the blaze consumed more than 20,000 acres and traveled 12 miles into the densely populated neighborhoods of Santa Rosa.

Witnesses in Sonoma County described terrifying fire tornadoes that flipped vehicles, uprooted trees, and hurled debris across neighborhoods.  

The Tubbs Fire lasted 23 days and was part of a larger disaster known as the October Firestorm, a series of fires that devastated Northern California’s wine country. The Tubbs Fire was the deadliest and most destructive of these North Bay fires, eventually claiming 22 lives, burning 37,000 acres, and destroying nearly 6,000 structures.

What caused the Tubbs Fire in 2017?

How did such damaging burns occur after years of drought? The answer lies in California's extreme weather shifts.

Between the winter of 2016 and the spring of 2018, record-setting precipitation hit different parts of the state. This led to a massive fuel load—heavy vegetation that grew rapidly in the wet months only to dry out during a parched autumn.

By the morning of October 8, conditions were prime for disaster:

• Heavy winds: Sustained winds of 20–30 mph, with gusts reaching 70 mph, pushed the fire forward.

• Rapid advancement: Driven from the northeast, the fire front moved 12 miles toward Santa Rosa in just three hours.

• The urban interface: The fire engulfed hundreds of homes within the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI)—areas where high-risk vegetation meets residential development.

How many homes were burned in the Tubbs Fire?  

According to Cotality estimates at the time, insured losses totaled between $5 billion and $7 billion.  

The total destruction was staggering, with the Tubbs Fire exemplifying how wildfires can spread house-to-house in urban areas, even without significant vegetation. In the suburban Coffey Park subdivision, the fire jumped U.S. Highway 101 and destroyed more than 1,000 homes.

In total, 3,043 residential units were destroyed in Santa Rosa.

The economic aftermath of the October Firestorm

The October Firestorm significantly disrupted Sonoma County’s economy. Beyond the physical damage, the loss of homes and businesses interrupted the regular cadence of local income, leading to a spike in financial instability marked by mortgage delinquency and rising housing costs.  

Three months after the fire, serious delinquency rates on home mortgages in Sonoma County spiked to 50%. While forbearance programs provided some relief, local default rates remained elevated for months.

As for housing costs, the sudden loss of inventory was a shock to the system. Rent and home prices skyrocketed. Six months after the disaster, Sonoma County saw an annual growth rate of nearly 11%. Home price growth in this region accelerated four to seven percentage points faster than the California statewide average.  

What was rebuilding like after the Tubbs Fire?

Over the last five years, Santa Rosa has prioritized reconstruction. According to the latest city data, of the 3,043 destroyed residential units:

• 2,176 structures have been completed

• 440 units are currently under construction

• 288 are in the permit review process

Is Sonoma County still at risk for wildfires?

This region of Northern California is still at considerable risk for wildfire outbreak.  

While the fuels that fed the 2017 Tubbs Fire were consumed, vegetation inevitably regrows. This, combined with a return to intense drought conditions, puts Sonoma County’s overall fire at just as high as, or higher than, it was in 2017.

Why understanding wildfire risk is important for alleviating disaster

Understanding this risk is critical to reducing it. As builders construct neighborhoods and commercial buildings farther into wildland areas, everyone involved must understand that they are likely developing within wildfire-prone land. Such development amplifies the climatological and terrain-related wildfire risk factors that already exist.

Additionally, it’s critical to grasp that once flames that start in the wildlands reach a city, they can turn into an urban firestorm, where homes themselves become the primary fuel source.

To adequately protect homeowners, insurers must understand the nuances of wildfire risk at the granular level.

Resilience is further amplified when homeowners have proactive relationships with their insurers, collaborating to understand the financial implications of fire risk and the steps they can take to harden their homes.

 When communities work together to take steps in mitigating risk, they make significant strides toward ensuring the safety of homes, businesses and families.